Backing the Draw in Close Games: Still Profitable? | The Church of Betting

Many bettors that followed my blog for some time now ask me whether I still think that betting on a draw in closely contested soccer games is still the most profitable betting choice. Since I stated that approach, a few years have passed, and that time period was enough to gather additional data. On the first look, it seemed that this tactic was not really profitable. However, this data alone does not provide an answer to the question whether this will hold in the long run and whether different approach can yield a better result.

Key Takeaways:

Two and a half years of data is enough to tell whether the apparent trend is really just noise.
The sheer volume of the Premier League betting means it is likely a very efficient market.
Further analysis of the Premier League and La Liga doesn’t appear to support the backing the draw strategy.

“Furthermore, it is best practice to start from an idea based on some underlying truth about a sport and then look for a trend in the data that you expect to find. Finding some trend and then building a narrative about it is more likely to land you in the noise department.”